Skip to main content

If the Federal Reserve doesn't do this, the U.S. economy and S&P 500 will have a hard landing.

The biggest reason to be hopeful that a recession caused by the Federal Reserve can be avoided next year was just taken away. In September and October, hourly pay went up, and in November, it went up even more. This pushed wage growth far above the range that is in line with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

If the Federal Reserve doesn't do this, the U.S. economy and S&P 500 will have a hard landing.

Nearly everyone agrees that the Fed needs to raise its inflation target, at least in practice, if the U.S. economy is to avoid a hard landing and a bigger drop for the S&P 500. The Fed might be willing to do this, but the economy would still need to cool down more before they stop raising interest rates.

"The 2% inflation target is a lot more flexible than the Fed lets on," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told IBD. "I don't think there's any constituency out there for the bloodletting that would be necessary."

Brusuelas thinks that for inflation to return to 2%, the Fed would have to raise unemployment to 6.7%. But most of the way to 3% inflation could be reached with a much smaller rise in unemployment to 4.6%, which would still cost 1.7 million jobs.

.net/YwotbKdP4sVunJGfdhmgww/e8f260a6-84bf-4222-a093-e1ef14e44c00/

"If the Fed is dead set on getting inflation to 2%, that could mean more rate hikes and a higher end rate than what is already baked into the cake," said Joe Quinlan, head of market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. "It might be too much tightening of the money supply," which would cause a sharp drop in the U.S. economy and earnings.

But Quinlan also thinks there is a chance of a better outcome. If inflation keeps going down toward 3% and Fed policymakers "take their time" instead of rushing things, he thinks the markets will go up.

"I wouldn't be surprised if, in maybe two years, the new Fed inflation target is something like 3% to 3.5%. That is definitely a possibility, and everyone agrees that it would be fine."

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Accumulate Wealth: Strategies for Effective Financial Resource Management

  In today's ever-changing business landscape, the skillful management of financial resources stands as a paramount concern for organizations striving to prosper and achieve success. Financial resources serve as the lifeblood of any enterprise, empowering them to invest, operate, and grow. This comprehensive article delves deep into the concept of Financial Resources, shedding light on what they are and offering insights into effective management strategies. While the keyword " where to accumulate wealth " is relevant to financial planning, this article primarily focuses on the broader concept of financial resources and their management within the business context. Understanding Financial Resources Financial resources encompass the funds and assets that an organization employs to finance its operations, projects, and investments. These resources exist in various forms, including cash, accounts receivable, investments, and more. Managing these resources effectively can ma...

US military accesses crypto security threats

The military's innovation branch is examining cryptocurrencies to identify the threats to law enforcement and national security. DARPA will conduct the year-long research. DARPA built the first internet-supporting tech. The startup will give the Pentagon tools to help law enforcement clamp down on illegal digital asset use. Mark Flood, the organization's program manager, told The Washington Post that the report "maps out the cryptocurrency ecosystem in depth." The government hopes to use the data to acquire insights into traditional financial market trends and fight illicit funding. The deal is the latest example of federal authorities' efforts to stop terrorists, rogue states, and other bad actors from using cryptocurrencies to finance their activities. Last month, the Treasury Department sanctioned Tornado Cash, a service that let North Korean hackers repurchase stolen cryptocurrency. This week, the agency asked the public about cryptocurrency hazards to nationa...